When should a European startup start its US expansion?

A European startup should start its US expansion earlier than feels comfortable. Many European founders say they want to conquer the market of the United States (US). Many of them plan to do it in three to five years. By then, the market is often gone.

David Klein sees this pattern across dozens of portfolio companies at One Peak, one of the leading growth equity investors in Europe. Growth equity investors fund companies that are already growing. David was my guest on the DEALMACHER podcast, and I summarised his view in my CEO Briefing on why founders wait too long with the US.

His advice is consistent: go earlier than feels comfortable, and go with more commitment than feels necessary.

Why do European founders wait too long with the US?

European founders wait because the plan looks reasonable at home. David has seen the same sequence many times:

1. The founder builds a solid business in two or three European markets.
2. Revenue is growing, and the team is strong.
3. The US is on the roadmap, somewhere in year four or five, after more consolidation at home.

Each step makes sense on its own. The problem is the timing. The US market does not wait. While the European founder consolidates, a competitor moves in, often better funded and often already based in the US. By the time the European company arrives, the market has shaped itself around someone else.

I call this the planning fallacy of European expansion: the plan assumes that the US market will still be open in year four or five.

What does real commitment to the US market mean?

Real commitment means that every customer touchpoint feels like a US business. In David's view, this is where most expansions fail: on execution and on the level of investment, more than on strategy.

In practice, three functions sit in the US:

• Sales: the sales team is in the US.
• Onboarding: customers are onboarded from the US.
• Customer success: the team that looks after existing customers is in the US.

A small outpost with a single hire who reports back to European headquarters falls short of this. What counts is a real presence that the customer can feel.

The test is the customer's view: does working with your company feel like working with a US business, in sales, in onboarding and in customer success?

What happens if you expand to the US with too little investment?

An underfunded US expansion produces the worst outcome, with three costs at once:

1. Money: the budget for the expansion is spent.
2. Reputation: your reputation with US customers is damaged.
3. Brand: the market now links your brand with underdelivery.

The investment for a real US presence is substantial. The alternative is worse. It means going in underfunded and half-present, and expecting US customers to accept a European service experience.

That changes the budget question. The comparison is between the cost of a full presence and the cost of a failed entry. A half-present expansion still costs money, and it also costs reputation in the market you want to win.

Does a founder have to move to the US?

In David's view, one of the founders has to move to the US. For him, this is the most important decision in a US expansion. It matters more than the choice of city or of the first sales leader.

David is direct on this. He wants to see a founder relocate. Frequent visits do not meet that bar. The founder moves.

For a founding team, this turns the US expansion into a personal decision before it becomes a business plan. One of the founders has to be willing to make the US their own problem.

Why does it matter whether a founder relocates?

It matters because remote leadership weakens what you build in the new market. The reason is cultural. Three things degrade when leadership is remote:

1. Team quality: the quality of the team you build in the US.
2. Speed: the speed at which decisions get made.
3. Culture: the way the company's culture transfers across the Atlantic.

A founder on a weekly call from London cannot hold the same standard as a founder in the room.

This is a hard ask. A move disrupts families, friendships and routines. But the companies that get the US right almost always have a founder who made that bet personally.

How do you decide whether your startup is ready for a US expansion?

David frames the decision simply: do you want to build a truly large company? If yes, you have to go to the US. In his view, the question of whether you are ready is largely irrelevant. The work is to become ready.

Three questions can make the decision concrete for a founding team:

1. Ambition: do we want to build a truly large company?
2. Resources: can we fund a presence where sales, onboarding and customer success sit in the US?
3. Founder: which of us is willing to move and make the US their own problem?

A team that answers yes to the first question and no to the other two has found its work for the next months: becoming ready.

Waiting until you feel prepared is usually waiting too long. The right moment to start is earlier than your instinct suggests, with more resources than your budget prefers. As I wrote in my CEO Briefing on David Klein's advice: the market will not hold the spot open while you get comfortable with the idea.